Quieter Pattern Leads to a Mix of Improvements, Degradations to Drought

Compared to recent weeks, a fairly dry weather pattern was observed throughout the U.S. this week, leading to worsening dryness and drought conditions. The exceptions were the Northwest and Southeast, which had above average precipitation for the week.

West
There was a sharp contrast in precipitation across the West this week. It was wetter than normal across the northern half of the region, with no precipitation in the southern half. The most abundant precipitation was along coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and from Idaho into western Montana. Given the very divided region, there was a mix of improvements and degradations to abnormally dry and drought conditions.

The rain in Oregon erased the abnormally dry conditions in the western part of the state, and abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D1) improved in the northeast corner of Oregon. There were no changes in Washington this week as the most recent rains helped to stabilize conditions that had been deteriorating. In Idaho, abnormally dry conditions decreased over much of western and southern portions of the state. Northern Nevada also saw improvement in abnormally dry conditions. With bettering indicators, eastern Montana had improvements to moderate, severe and extreme drought.

Conversely, moderate and severe drought (D1-D2) expanded in the south half of the Western region. This includes southern California, southern Nevada, Utah and Arizona. A large area of extreme drought (D3) remains across far southern California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona.  Moderate drought (D1) also expanded over western New Mexico, with abnormally dry conditions growing across the east.
 
High Plains
Light rain and snow were measured from eastern Wyoming into Kansas and Nebraska as well as portions of western North Dakota. Most other areas were dry for the week. As a result, abnormal dryness and drought worsened for areas that stayed dry.

Abnormally dry conditions shrunk in coverage across southwestern Wyoming, while severe to extreme drought (D2-D3) improved over northern and western parts of the state. In Colorado, some abnormally dry conditions improved in north-central parts of the state, while they were expanded in southern areas. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D1) expanded over southern Kansas. All other areas remained unchanged this week. An area of extreme drought (D3) remains across southeast Wyoming, northwest Nebraska, and the southwest part of South Dakota.
 
Midwest
Fairly dry weather occurred throughout the Midwest this week, though some precipitation fell in areas of Missouri into southern Illinois and Kentucky. Dry weather over the last week and throughout much of the winter has allowed for worsening drought in the Midwest.

Moderate drought (D1) has expanded over Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan. Abnormally dry conditions also worsened in Missouri, Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana. Michigan has some longer-term dry signals that are quite prominent, forcing the expansion of severe drought (D2) throughout more of the Lower Peninsula. Ohio and Kentucky remained the same this week, with no abnormal dryness or drought in Kentucky.
 
South
There were the haves and the have-nots in terms of precipitation across the South this week. The greatest rain occurred from the coastal areas of eastern Texas, Louisiana and parts of northeastern Oklahoma as a low-pressure system moved along parts of the Gulf. Parts of southern Louisiana picked anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of rain! However, the entire Southern region has been dry over much of the winter after a few very wet weeks in the autumn.

Moderate drought (D1) was expanded this week across southwestern Oklahoma and northern and central Texas, which stayed fairly dry this week. Abnormally dry conditions also grew in coverage across much of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Most of southern Texas also saw worsening drought conditions, with extreme drought (D3) in the San Antonio-Austin area.  In far west Texas, most areas west of the Pecos River remain in the grip of exceptional (D4) drought.

Abnormally dry conditions were improved in eastern Texas given the recent rain but were not removed completely due to some lingering dryness being observed as longer timescales. The recent rains also allowed for the removed of the abnormal dryness over southern Louisiana. Both abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D1) improved in southern Mississippi. Meanwhile, Arkansas and Tennessee missed out the beneficial moisture this week and remained status quo.
 
Southeast
Some much-needed precipitation fell along the eastern areas of North Carolina this week, with widespread rainfall over southern Alabama, Georgia and much of Florida. Areas that picked up this beneficial moisture saw improvement to abnormally dry and drought conditions.

Based on the recent precipitation in Alabama, improvements were made over much of the state to abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D1). However, west-central Alabama has not been as wet as others, so there was some expansion of abnormal dryness here. Abnormally dry conditions were removed from the Florida Panhandle, while moderate and severe drought (D1-D2) improved in central Florida. Moderate drought (D1) expanded slightly in southern Florida though. Abnormally dry and moderate drought (D1) conditions were improved and adjusted throughout much of Georgia.
 
Northeast
Except lake-effect snow in western New York, the Northeast saw a dry week of weather. The good news is that there has been a recent wetter pattern. Therefore, abnormally dry conditions were improved over southwestern Pennsylvania, with abnormally dry and moderate drought (D1) conditions improved in eastern Virginia. Northern New Jersey, however, has been drier, which warranted the expansion of severe drought (D2) slightly.
 
Looking Ahead
Two weather systems will impact the Northwest on the next drought update, with precipitation reaching the northern half of California as well. One system will occur early in the forecast period, while the next one is expected by the end of the week. Most of the precipitation looks to be generally limited to the coast, with smaller amounts farther inland. Expect rain for the coast and lower elevations, while snow falls in the mountains. This is likely to lead to improving drought conditions for northern parts of the region.  In contrast, southern California and the Southwest will likely see only light precipitation in the week ahead, so drought is likely to remain unchanged in these areas.

It should be a fairly active week in the Northeast thanks to a parade of weather systems. Expect rain for southern portions of the region almost daily, with wet snow or a rain/snow mix for interior areas. Improvements to abnormal dryness and drought will be likely here as a result.

There will also be a low-pressure system that looks to travel from the central Plains into the Southeast this week. Rain will soak most areas, but a wintry mix cannot be ruled out at times for areas on the northern edge of the low pressure. There could be some localized improvements to dryness and drought, but the region will most likely remain status quo or see some slight degradations.

Dry weather will generally prevail over the northern High Plains and Midwest.  Below-normal precipitation is forecast for much of the South as well.  Consequently, worsening dryness and drought will be the most likely scenario over the next week for these regions.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor