Severe Storm Risk - Rollingwood, TX

• Severe Storm Risk

  Thu 07:00 AM - Fri 06:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI SUMMARY Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. East-central TX into the lower MS Valley A large mid to upper-level low centered near the CO/KS/OK/TX border region will migrate eastward through tonight before reaching the lower MO Valley early Friday morning. A belt of 100+ kt 500-mb flow will move from southwest TX northeastward into eastern OK/north TX by early evening before overspreading the Ark-La-Miss and lower OH Valley. The strongest upper forcing for ascent will shift northeastward from the southern Great Plains into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley. Coincidentally, a weak surface low will move from northeast TX towards the IL vicinity late tonight. Surface analysis this morning indicates a warm frontal zone draped over northeastern TX and central LA. Model guidance indicates this feature will advance into parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid South later this afternoon/evening. Considerable cloudiness today will limit overall destabilization in combination with relatively marginal mid-level lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth/Del Rio, TX and Shreveport, LA raobs). However, a plume of modified Gulf moisture featuring dewpoints ranging from near 70 to the mid 60s, extends from Deep South TX northward into eastern TX ahead of the cold front and south of the northward advancing warm frontal zone. Uncertainty for severe today into tonight is related to overall weak instability and storm development immediately ahead of the front. It seems plausible storms will gradually intensify through the morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs which would support a potential risk for organized line segments/supercells. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a couple of tornadoes appear to be the primary threats with the stronger storms as this potential severe activity shifts east in tandem with a strong LLJ. Weaker instability with east extent into the lower MS Valley this evening/tonight will likely lead to a lessening severe threat with time.