Severe Storm Risk - Elaine, AR

• Severe Storm Risk

  Thu 07:00 PM - Fri 06:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUMMARY Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. Lower Mississippi Valley In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period.