Severe Storm Risk - Albany, GA

• Severe Storm Risk

  Fri 08:00 AM - Sat 07:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUMMARY Thunderstorms with isolated damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. Southern AL/FL Panhandle into southwest GA Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low over the lower MO Valley this morning. This upper feature is forecast to evolve into an open wave and accelerate eastward to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas coast by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will move through the base of the larger-scale trough over the central Gulf Coast states today. In the low levels, an effective cold front extends southward through western AL from an occluded surface low over the mid MS Valley. This front will push east during the day with southerly low-level flow acting to advect a still-modifying airmass northward into the FL Panhandle and AL/GA. Scant buoyancy sampled this morning on the 12 UTC Birmingham, AL raob (100 J/kg MUCAPE) will contribute to isolated thunderstorm development today. However, weak lapse rates and weak convergence associated with the front will likely limit storm intensity. Uncertainty remains whether robust updrafts can develop with the low-topped convective band moving east across southern AL this morning. Intensification of this band is quite uncertain at this time given a dearth of a severe signal in convection-allowing model guidance and observational trends trending lower. Will maintain a low-probability wind highlight for now given the aforementioned uncertainty. Elsewhere, weak instability may lead to isolated storms over central GA into the Carolinas later today. Forecast soundings show intense flow fields with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE possibly developing with a neutral surface-1km AGL layer before frontal passage. Confidence in a strong storm over this region is low---precluding severe probabilities.