Turbulent severe weather returns across the Great Plains this weekend, but it is the beginning of the workweek where a particularly ominous storm shows its fangs in the Upper Midwest.
Firstly, adequate ingredients for severe storms will mesh in the southern Plains later this afternoon, forming individual severe thunderstorms into thunderstorm clusters. Damaging winds emerge as the greatest threat, but large hail and a few tornadoes are likely toward the High Plains. Additionally, a few upper-level disturbances could create thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts in the Mid-Atlantic.
Tornado Watches are in effect for eastern New Mexico and west Texas as well as southwest Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and and far northeast Texas. Cities include Las Vegas, Tucumcari, Clovis, Roswell, Carlsbad and Hobbs, N.M., McAlester, Okla., and Texarkana, Ark.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southwest Texas, including the city of Midland.
To be more specific, the government's Storm Prediction Center has issued two Slight Risk areas (a 2 out of 5 risk level on the severity scale) in both the New Mexican High Plains as well as along the Red River Basin in south-central Oklahoma. Although few folks are affected in this region, cities such as Roswell and Hobbs, N.M., Ardmore, Okla., and Midland Texas are covered by the risk area.
On Sunday, threatening weather shifts into the northern Plains, but at least a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe storms stretches along the nation's High Plains. Upper- level energy will be zipping far overhead, making room for vigorous storms to rise by Sunday afternoon. Although an isolated tornado is possible, storm cells and clusters will be too far above ground, instead putting heavy hail and damaging winds at the forefront of Sunday’s worst weather hazards.
Currently, there is a Slight Risk area posted for central Nebraska into southern North Dakota, threatening locales such as Bismarck and Dickinson, N.D., Pierre, S.D., and both North Platte and Kearney, Neb.
The most ominous outlook, however, is expected for Monday. A significant potential for a tornado outbreak is on the horizon for the far Upper Midwest, with additional destructive storms possible all the way into Texas. High-energy and moisture-laden air cross a strong front over the U.S. Midsection to shoot up supercells and severe storm lines alike from midday on Monday through the night. Storms producing very large hail and destructive wind gusts are also on the radar under this strong concoction of severe weather ingredients.
The most unstable conditions will pair with the Upper Midwest, where there is already a Moderate Risk (a 4 out of 5 risk) for the heart of the Upper Midwest. Major cities such as St.
Paul and Rochester, Minn., Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and La Crosse, Wis. are marked under this dangerous risk area.
An Enhanced Risk (a 3 out of 5 risk) and Slight Risk also encompass the threat, drooping as far north as the Canadian border into just south of the Texas Panhandle. A wide suite of cities is covered by these areas, including Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Kansas City, Chicago, and Oklahoma City to name a few.
Severe weather will not just stop in its tracks after Monday night. Severe storm systems are forecasted to sweep eastward as the workweek progresses, and risk levels are likely to change form and even increase or deepen. The best protection is staying informed through reliable sources like the WeatherBug app and having an emergency kit ready with essentials like water, non-perishable food, and a battery-powered radio. As always, heed the lifesaving advice: "When Thunder Roars, Go
